Bell CL, et al.
J Am Geriatr Soc. 2014 Apr 29. doi: 10.1111/jgs.12796. [Epub ahead of print]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To identify potentially modifiable late-life biological, lifestyle, and sociodemographic factors associated with overall and healthy survival to age 85.
DESIGN: Prospective longitudinal cohort study with 21 years of follow-up (1991-2012).
SETTING: Hawaii Lifespan Study.
PARTICIPANTS: American men of Japanese ancestry (mean age 75.7, range 71-82) without baseline major clinical morbidity and functional impairments (N = 1,292).
MEASUREMENTS: Overall survival and healthy survival (free from six major chronic diseases and without physical or cognitive impairment) to age 85. Factors were measured at late-life baseline examinations (1991-1993).
RESULTS: Of 1,292 participants, 1,000 (77%) survived to 85 (34% healthy) and 309 (24%) to 95 (<1% healthy). Late-life factors associated with survival and healthy survival included biological (body mass index, ankle-brachial index, cognitive score, blood pressure, inflammatory markers), lifestyle (smoking, alcohol use, physical activity), and sociodemographic factors (education, marital status). Cumulative late-life baseline risk factor models demonstrated that age-standardized (at 70) probability of survival to 95 ranged from 27% (no factors) to 7% (≥5 factors); probability of survival to 100 ranged from 4% (no factors) to 0.1% (≥5 factors). Age-standardized (at 70) probability of healthy survival to 90 ranged from 4% (no factors) to 0.01% (≥5 factors). There were nine healthy survivors at 95 and one healthy survivor at 100.
CONCLUSION: Several potentially modifiable risk factors in men in late life (mean age 75.7) were associated with markedly greater probability of subsequent healthy survival and longevity.